Task 6 - Forecast site-induced migration

Contents in this section:

Sites should forecast population growth over time, incorporating the estimated number of in- or out-migrants.

By forecasting SIM over time, sites have a better understanding of when estimated peak SIM is likely to occur and what the size of the population within the area of influence (and for the identified hotspots in particular) may look like over time. Population density figures over time can also be a useful indicator.

Where SIM is already occurring and ongoing, sites should estimate actual population growth and (approximate) number of in- or out-migrants and use this information to forecast SIM over the life of the asset.

Forecasting population growth should be based on:

Current population numbers by community.
The natural population growth rate, as this is likely to remain constant over time.
An estimated multiplier effect of the ratio of in-migrants per on-site worker (see Box 4G.4). This requires information about site employment over the Life of Asset.
Assumptions as to where in-migrants may settle based on the hotspots identified. For example, 75% of in-migrants may be likely to settle in the serviced settlement nearest to the site, 20% of in-migrants may be expected to settle in the capital of the region in which the site is located, and 5% of in-migrants may be likely to settle along the site’s access road. For out-migration this includes assumptions on where out-migrants are most likely to settle based on the hotspots identified.
Information about the number of site employees over time.
Assumptions about the number of employees at other sites or companies in the area of influence, which may also contribute to in- or out-migration.

Plan

Plan