PLAN

The plan phase focuses on gathering information to assess the context of conflict, the potential social and human rights impacts and risks related to conflict, and to develop a Conflict Management Plan (CMP).

Task 1 - Undertake a conflict analysis

Sites should undertake a conflict analysis to understand the nature and extent of existing conflict and conflict dynamics or the potential for future conflict. Conflict analysis is a structured process aimed at identifying and analysing conflict issues, patterns and trends in order to determine the appropriate response. Sites should consider the need for external expertise when completing a conflict analysis.

There are four elements to undertaking a conflict analysis: analysing the external context and identifying issues; identifying causes, drivers, and triggers; analysing the parties to the conflict; and identifying conflict dynamics. These are depicted in Figure 4J.2. Where a site may be experiencing multiple conflicts, these elements should be repeated for each situation identified because the conflicts may have distinct characteristics. The outcomes of the conflict analysis should be documented in the external-context review (see Section 2).

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Figure 4J.2 Components of a conflict analysis

Analyse the external context and identify issues

Sites should analyse the external context to establish if there are any issues that may cause, drive or trigger conflict. Table 4J.1 explains the concepts of root causes, drivers, triggers and manifestations of conflict.

Table 4J.1 Conflict causes, drivers, triggers and manifestations

Category	Description	Examples
Structural or root causes	Pervasive factors that have become built into the policies, structures and fabric of a society based on underlying social interests, rights, values, information, relationships and institutional structures.	Illegitimate or weak governance Lack of political participation (or specific exclusion) of particular groups Lack of (or inequality in) economic and social opportunities Marginalisation of women or minority ethnic groups Inequitable access to land and resources Systemic corruption
Drivers of conflict	Factors (relating to the immediate social, political or economic environment) that are symptomatic of the root causes and contribute to a climate conducive to conflict or its escalation.	Lack of effective engagement and communication Poor or contested leadership Community disunity Human rights abuses Availability of light weapons Self-interest of political actors
Triggers	Single acts, events, or their anticipation that will set off or escalate conflict – these may be political, environmental, operational, economic or demographic.	Political: elections/change of government, arrest of key leader, behaviour of political actors. Environmental: competing access to land or water; increased access to area; environmental disaster; increased food scarcity. Operational: expansions, downsizing or contracting-out Economic: scarcity of basic commodities, capital flight, unemployment, disputes over distribution of benefits Demographic: growing population, out- and in-migration Site related impacts: security arrangements, resettlement and compensation policies
Manifestations	The (visible) expression of conflict.	Police, military or security action Violent and non-violent protests Boycotts Petitions

Sites should review the external context to identify issues associated with conflict. In doing so, they should be guided by the following questions and consider whether the issues have or could lead to fundamental disagreements between two or more parties within the context of the site. External expertise may be required to complete this task.

• What are the existing or emerging political, economic, environmental, or social issues or events that may cause, drive or trigger conflict? These could include, for example, elections, government-reform processes, leadership contestation, economic recession, unemployment, in-migration, drought and flooding. Can these issues lead to fundamental disagreements between two or more parties? If so, how might this manifest?
• Are there specific geographical areas relevant to the site prone to conflict? If so, describe these. These could, for example, include areas around the location of natural resources, key infrastructure and lines of communication, pockets of socially marginalised or excluded populations. Can disagreements about these areas cause fundamental conflict between two or more parties? If so, how might this manifest?
• Is there a history of conflict, or current manifestations of conflict? If so, describe these and how they were responded to. What were the significant events in the conflict, what were the manifestations of the conflict, is it possible to discern the underlying causes, drivers and triggers of the conflict, and what methods were used to respond to the conflict?

Compile an overview of conflict and potential for conflict in the external context, highlighting the issues and how they may cause, drive or trigger conflict.

Analyse causes, drivers and triggers

Sites should build on the initial identification of potential conflict issues and conduct an exercise to better understand the root causes, drivers, triggers and manifestations of the conflict. Getting to the root causes of a conflict is key to understanding and responding to it. Sites can use visual tools such as the iceberg (see Figure 4J.3) or the Conflict Tree (see Figure 4J.4) as part of the exercise. This exercise to analyse drivers, root causes and triggers should be repeated as needed to understand different conflict situations and/or to understand conflict between multiple groups.

The image of an iceberg helps to show that while only the manifestation of conflict is visible, i.e. above the surface, the root causes, drivers and triggers of conflict may not be visible, i.e. lie below the surface, out of sight.

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Figure 4J.3 The iceberg

The Conflict Tree¹ is a visual tool to facilitate an exercise to identify the root cause(s) and manifestations of conflict. The Conflict Tree exercise is ideally conducted in a group, which can include members of both parties to a conflict.

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Figure 4J.4 The Conflict Tree

Analyse parties to conflict

Sites should follow the steps below to identify and analyse the parties to existing or potential conflict. The parties to conflict can include the site or individuals at or departments of the site, and (a range of) external stakeholders.

Identify parties

The identification and analysis of the parties to conflict should build on the initial identification of stakeholders conducted as part of the stakeholder mapping process (see Section 3A). The results should be integrated into the site’s stakeholder register and be considered in the site’s Stakeholder Engagement Plan and Social Management Plan (see Section 3A and Section 2) as required.

Sites should identify the parties to a conflict through the following questions:

• Who are the main stakeholders in conflict, and what are the relationships between them? Divide the parties into the following categories:
  • Primary parties: these parties oppose one another, are hostile and have a direct interest in the outcome of the conflict.
  • Secondary parties: these parties have an indirect interest in the outcome, are often allied or sympathetic with primary parties, but they are not direct adversaries.
  • Third parties: these are players such as facilitators, mediators, arbitrators or adjudicators who might intervene to facilitate resolution of one form or another.
• Which actors can be identified as possible spoilers; namely, individuals who actively seek to cause conflict or undermine efforts at conflict management? Why? What are their incentives; e.g. groups benefiting from a lack of change, leaders or authority figures who may feel undermined?

Understand positions, interests, needs and capacities

Sites should clarify and document the positions, interests, needs and capacities of each of the parties to a conflict, and identify differences and areas of overlap:

• Positions: These are the demands parties make or the outcomes they seek. For example, a site may propose to resettle a community in order to expand operations. This is the mine’s position. The community, in turn, may not wish to move. This is the community’s position.
• Interests: These are what the parties want to achieve to meet their respective needs. In the resettlement example, the site’s interests include expanding operations and securing access to the land they require to achieve this. The interests of the community include retaining their connection to the land and the economic, social, cultural and psychological benefits it provides.
• Needs: These are what each party requires to sustain itself. Needs can be objective or subjective. In the resettlement example, the site’s needs include maintaining a certain return on investment. The community’s needs include sustaining their livelihoods and a sense of community.
• Capacities: In this context, capacity refers to the party’s potential to influence whether violence occurs or not. Consider their economic resources, access to power, social networks, and cultural barriers. Consider gender dynamics and whether men and women have different capacities in this regard

The positions, needs and interests of the parties can be mapped to show where the parties diverge and where they have commonalities. While parties may differ in their positions, they might have certain interests or needs in common. Understanding what the commonalities are forms the basis of pursuing resolution of differences.

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Figure 4J.5 Understanding the positions, interests and needs of contending parties

Sites should map the parties to a conflict based on an understanding of their positions, interests, needs and capacities. Examples of mapping techniques are shown in in Figures 4J.5 and 4J.6.

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Figure 4J.6 Conflict mapping

Identify conflict dynamics

Another aspect of conflict analysis is to understand the character and trends, or dynamics, of the conflict, which can change over time. The dynamics of conflict are the result of the interaction of the issues identified in the external context analysis; causes, drivers and triggers analysis; and analysis of parties. Understanding the dynamics enables the identification of different scenarios of (violent) conflict occurring. The key questions to answer are:

1. What are the current trends? Is there an escalation or de-escalation of tensions? Are major changes in the context background, causes/drivers/triggers, actors or interaction between them positive or negative?
2. What factors are likely to prolong violence/conflict if it occurs? E.g. potential for radicalisation, involvement of the Armed Forces, lack of outside intervention.

Based on the analysis, scenarios can be built: 1) the best case, where the current situation leads to a positive outcome, 2) a middle ground where the status quo is maintained without significantly positive or negative changes, 3) a worst case, where current trends develop into a negative outcome. These should be an assessment of likely developments based on what is known about the current context from the conflict analysis. Dynamics are likely to be affected by trends going back many years (the conflict timeline) and in certain cases a historical analysis may be useful to gain a deeper understanding of current developments.

A conflict timeline and conflict path are tools that can be used to help to identify the conflict trends and opportunities for resolving conflict.

Conflict timeline

The conflict timeline can help to illustrate historical phases of a conflict and can be used to facilitate understanding of the conflict dynamics over time. Sites should outline the perspectives of each of the parties to a conflict over time and in relation to specific events in order to understand the different perceptions on the course of events, and to clarify what are seen as the most significant events by each of the parties. An example is provided in Figure 4J.7. Where possible, bringing external stakeholders associated with the conflict in to generate and discuss the timeline, with the help of a neutral third party if needed, can help in building a common understanding and basis for managing conflict and resolving disputes.

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Figure 4J.7 Example of a conflict timeline

Identify the conflict path

The conflict path describes the level of intensity the conflict goes through over time from its causes, to factors that may aggravate it, those that may moderate it and to its outcome, either positive or negative. A conflict path can be used as an illustrative tool to plot how conflict increases or decreases in intensity along a timescale and can help structure planning around the conflict management approach. Sites should draw the conflict path of the conflict(s) they are a party to in order to understand where in the process of conflict development and resolution they potentially find themselves. This understanding will assist in developing their strategy to respond to the conflict. Detailed guidance on developing the strategic response to conflict is found in Task 3 Determine Conflict Management Approach.

An example of a conflict path is provided in Figure 4J.8, illustrating a positive outcome, which may not always be the case.

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Figure 4J.8 An example of conflict path

¹ International Alert (2005) Conflict-Sensitive Business Practice: Guidance for Extractive Industries. Available at: https://www.international-alert.org/publications/conflict-sensitive-business-practice-guidance-extractive-industries-en [Accessed 17 August 2020]

² Brahm, E (2003) Conflict Stages. Available at: https://www.beyondintractability.org/essay/conflict_stages [Accessed 17 August 2020]